A Living Treaty: the 2026 USMCA Review
The review of USMCA scheduled for July 1, 2026 is baked into the treaty itself (Article 34.7), with U.S. change proposals due to Congress by June 1. As of March 2026, all three countries are actively engaged in preparation for that review — a positive signal for the regional business community navigating an otherwise volatile trade environment.
The USMCA is a living document not just because it includes regular opportunities for review and update, but because it allows for interpretation mechanisms. Dispute settlement is one of them, seen in agricultural matters (e.g., GMO corn, settled) and in energy (e.g., market advantages granted to Mexico’s national electrical utility, still in dispute). Another is the treaty’s Rapid Response Labor Mechanism, which applies to labor complaints about Mexico facilities and can only be filed by the U.S. Government. Through the end of 2024 the mechanism saw 31 formal complaints and six panels, mostly regarding workers’ rights at Mexican automotive and manufacturing plants, but also at mines and a call center.
As a concrete indicator that the treaty remains active under Trump 47, on February 19, 2026 the USTR launched a review of USMCA automotive rules of origin. The minimum content for a vehicle to be considered North American is currently 75 percent, 40 percent of which must be made in the U.S. or Canada and must include core components like engines, transmissions, and chassis. Any proposals to change or maintain these thresholds will be addressed in July and factored into the USTR review, due in 2027.
The perspective from Mexico is that the review is a timely opportunity to revisit tough issues. The elephants in the room are Mexico’s energy relationship with the U.S., where all three parties stand vis-à-vis China, and — though not directly addressed by the treaty — organized crime. Various voices in Mexico have speculated that the review process will likely become drawn out, but not enough to destabilize the agreement. Kenneth Smith Ramos, former USMCA negotiator, recently discussed this on the Trucking Matters podcast. Juan Carlos Baker is another USMCA watcher who has assessed in depth the factors in play.
Source: Juan Carlos Baker and Diego Marroquin Bitar article on CSIS (www.csis.org/analysis/inside-mechanics-2026-usmca-review)
The USMCA as a Regional Stabilizer
While this year’s “talks” may take longer to finalize than desired, they are both mandated by the agreement and welcome. The more dynamic and relevant the agreement the better it is for the region, especially in the midst of such fast-paced changes as we are living in trade with the rise of AI, Mexico’s recent fever pitch to establish rule of law and protect its sovereignty, and the US’s internal wake-up calls with respect to semiconductor and other manufac